Turkey’s Geopolitical Rise Amid a Shifting Global Landscape
The Geopolitical Landscape and What It Means for Turkey: A New Trump Administration’s Impact
The recent appointments by the Trump administration highlight a clear shift away from the “neo-conservative” approach to foreign policy. Traditionally, neo-conservatives have advocated for a hawkish global presence that prioritizes U.S. interests through assertive and sometimes interventionist strategies. This new approach under Trump signifies a more U.S.-centric worldview, prioritizing domestic interests over international commitments. It’s a vision that feels nostalgic and backward-looking, with several blind spots and vulnerabilities.
Trump’s foreign policy coalition is diverse, encompassing an "Israel First" faction, China hawks, and, to a lesser extent, Russia hawks. Of these, the "Israel First" group is the least controversial and has broad support within the coalition. On the Russia front, however, the administration’s room for maneuver is significantly reduced compared to Trump's first term. Russia continues to rely on a strategy that assumes the West will eventually scale back its support for Ukraine, hoping to cement Russian gains and push for a peace agreement that includes the demilitarization and “Finlandization” of Ukraine. Despite slow but incremental battlefield gains, this strategy hasn’t panned out as Russia expected, partly due to what they perceive as Europe’s irrational and unstrategic commitment to Ukraine. A new Trump administration is unlikely to alter this dynamic drastically; instead, the West and Russia will likely continue their incremental escalations.
On the China front, expect further restrictions on semiconductors and tech manufacturing aimed at undermining China’s technological capabilities. China, in response, will likely play hardball, which could have significant repercussions for Western consumer technology companies. While there may be headlines about adjustments to tariffs, any major or dramatic moves seem unlikely, as they would be self-defeating for U.S. economic interests.
What Does This Mean for Turkey?
For Turkey, the geopolitical implications suggest more of the same. The election of Trump, coupled with the rise of right-wing populism in Europe and economic malaise affecting key European players like Germany and France, will push the European establishment to look for strategic depth elsewhere. This environment could present a valuable opportunity for Turkey. With skillful negotiation, Turkey could leverage this moment to secure a better economic deal than the current customs union, enhancing its influence and strategic partnerships.
Navigating the "Israel First" Trump Administration
Given the Trump administration's strong "Israel First" stance, Turkey's strategic approach should focus on building relationships with key players in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Egypt, especially Saudi Arabia. A direct confrontation with Israel is unlikely to yield positive outcomes for Turkey or the Palestinian people. Instead, fostering ties with influential Arab states could create a more balanced and effective diplomatic strategy.
Furthermore, Turkish synergy with Saudi Arabia and Egypt on the Palestinian issue has the potential to balance out the distorted Israeli hegemony, both on the ground and diplomatically. By working in concert, these nations could create an opening for a more just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—one that acknowledges and addresses the grievances of Palestinians while also offering long-term benefits for Israelis. Such a balanced approach could pave the way for sustainable peace and stability in the region.
Turkey’s Strategy with Russia and Ukraine
When it comes to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey will continue to “play both sides.” This balancing act allows Turkey to maintain its strategic relationship with Russia while simultaneously supporting Ukraine through defense cooperation, such as supplying drones. For Turkey to deepen its cooperation with Europe, however, European leaders must involve Turkey in the defense industrial complex and offer a more favorable economic deal than the existing customs union. Only by addressing these strategic and economic demands can Europe expect stronger and more consistent alignment from Turkey.
Syria and Iraq: Navigating Clashes with U.S. Priorities
In Syria and Iraq, where Turkey’s interests often clash with U.S. priorities, Ankara should leverage its synergies with the GCC and Egypt to present a united front with a shared vision for the region. By collaborating closely with these influential Arab states, Turkey can work toward a comprehensive and cohesive strategy that addresses security, political, and humanitarian concerns in these conflict zones. Additionally, integrating Iran into the regional economic and diplomatic scene could further stabilize the region and foster cooperation, benefiting all parties involved. This inclusive approach would help mitigate conflicts and promote a more integrated Middle Eastern economic and political landscape.
Turkey’s Mediation Role in the Horn of Africa
Turkey should also play a serious mediation role between Somalia, Ethiopia, and Egypt. The tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and regional disputes present an opportunity for Turkey to position itself as a credible mediator. By leveraging its growing influence in Africa and strong diplomatic ties with all three nations, Turkey can help facilitate dialogue and promote stability in the Horn of Africa. Successful mediation efforts could enhance Turkey’s diplomatic standing and foster deeper economic and strategic ties across the continent.
Strategic Investments in Southeast Asia
Turkish companies, especially in services, tech, and manufacturing, should strategically prioritize investments in Southeast Asia. The region offers substantial growth opportunities, and Turkey is uniquely positioned to offer expertise and solutions that neither the West nor China can provide. With existing defense and economic cooperation between Turkey and nations like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, there is room to further expand these relationships. Investing in Southeast Asia can yield significant economic benefits and strengthen Turkey’s influence in this increasingly important region.
Further Integration with the GCC and Egypt
Beyond Southeast Asia, deeper economic and diplomatic integration with the GCC and Egypt will be beneficial for Turkey. Enhanced cooperation in areas such as defense, infrastructure, and energy could unlock new opportunities and create a more resilient economic and strategic partnership. Working closely with these regional players will also amplify Turkey’s role as a key mediator and power broker in the Middle East and North Africa.
The Road Ahead
In a multipolar world that increasingly values strategic alliances, Turkey stands to gain—if it can position itself effectively. Its ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape and capitalize on opportunities in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia will shape the next decade of regional dynamics. For Olea Vista Capital Advisory and our clients, understanding these shifts and identifying emerging opportunities is crucial for making informed investment decisions.
Turkey’s rise as a geopolitical heavyweight may not be a foregone conclusion, but it is a possibility we cannot ignore. As always, staying ahead of these trends requires keen insight and strategic foresight—qualities we are committed to providing at Olea Vista Capital Advisory.
